On January 27, 2024, Kimberly Marten, professor of political science, co-authored a new monograph for the Washington D.C.-based think tank, Center for a New American Security (CNAS), titled “Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia.”
In the paper, the authors examine the future of Russian paramilitary organizations following the Wagner group’s mutiny and the death of leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in the summer of 2023. Given Russia’s degraded military capacity and constrained economic resources, particularly as sanctions continue to affect the nation, the researchers theorize that paramilitary organizations will become increasingly attractive as low-cost tools for advancing Russian objectives and competing against the West. They assert that Russia is particularly likely to use these tactics in Eurasia, as the Kremlin likely perceives the competition in this region as most intense and crucial for Russia's interests. In light of Russia’s declining influence in Eurasia, a region with long-standing ties to Moscow, Marten, and her colleagues point out that new paramilitary groups could undertake actions there to curry favor with Putin and the Kremlin.